Calgary’s dynamic housing market is poised to sustain its robust momentum through 2025, with sales figures anticipated to soar approximately 20 percent above long-term historical averages. This optimistic outlook, meticulously detailed in the Calgary Real Estate Board’s (CREB) annual forecast, paints a picture of a resilient market driven by strong population growth and the anticipated easing of lending rates. These powerful demand-side catalysts are expected to be met by a significant influx of new housing supply, a critical factor that will introduce much-needed balance to the market and temper the pace of price appreciation.
While the overall forecast remains largely positive, the market is not without its potential challenges. Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s Chief Economist, wisely notes, “While the market is expected to be more balanced than in recent years, significant economic risks—such as potential tariffs—could impact activity. These risks will be crucial to watch as we navigate through 2025.” This statement underscores the nuanced environment Calgary’s real estate sector will operate within, demanding vigilance from stakeholders and participants alike.
Calgary’s Resilient Sales Activity: A Look Ahead
The stability observed in Calgary’s housing market is a testament to its underlying strength. Following a robust performance in 2024, CREB projects that more than 26,000 homes will be sold across the city in 2025, mirroring the strong activity of the previous year. This consistent sales volume speaks volumes about the sustained buyer confidence and the ongoing allure of Calgary as a place to live and invest.
A closer examination of market segments reveals varied trends. The detached housing market, a perennial favourite for many families and move-up buyers, is forecasted to reach approximately 12,600 units in sales. This segment continues to demonstrate strong demand, often driven by lifestyle preferences for more space, private yards, and established communities, solidifying its position as a cornerstone of Calgary’s residential landscape.
In contrast, the condominium market is anticipated to navigate a period of adjustment. Similar to trends observed in other major urban centers, Calgary’s condo sector faces specific headwinds. A significant contributor to this shift is the rising rental vacancy rates, which have been fueled by a substantial influx of newly completed rental properties entering the market. This increased competition in the rental sphere is expected to temper demand for apartment-style condos, particularly from investors who might otherwise seek rental income opportunities. Consequently, CREB projects a modest 3.5 percent decline in condo sales for 2025. Despite this projected softening in sales volume, the condo segment is still expected to see a modest 1.8 percent increase in price, reflecting underlying long-term demand for affordable homeownership options within the city, albeit with tempered growth compared to other housing types.
Balancing Act: Supply, Demand, and Price Evolution
One of the most defining trends for the Calgary housing market in 2025 will be the profound impact of the city’s unprecedented construction boom. By the close of 2024, Calgary had witnessed the completion of over 22,500 new homes, a record-breaking achievement for the city’s development sector. Significantly, nearly half of these new completions were apartment-style units, targeting a crucial affordability segment and contributing substantially to the overall housing stock. This substantial increase in housing supply has already begun to exert a calming influence on the market, helping to ease the intense upward pressure on both sale prices and rental rates that characterized previous years.
Looking ahead, CREB anticipates that this wave of new housing will play a pivotal role in stabilizing the broader market. The intense price growth experienced recently is expected to moderate significantly. Citywide price appreciation is forecasted to slow to a more sustainable 3 percent in 2025, a notable deceleration from the robust 7 percent gain recorded in 2024. However, it’s crucial for buyers and sellers to understand that this city-wide average masks varied trends across different price points and housing segments.
Lower-priced homes, often the entry point for first-time buyers or those seeking more affordable options, are still expected to experience steeper price increases. This phenomenon is largely driven by persistent high demand in this segment combined with a relatively limited inventory of available homes, creating competitive bidding scenarios. Conversely, higher-priced homes may encounter softer growth. This segment faces increased competition not only from existing luxury properties but also from the burgeoning supply of newly built units that offer modern amenities and designs, providing more choice for discerning buyers and potentially moderating price gains.
Economic Foundation and Demographic Shifts Driving Calgary’s Market
Alberta’s robust and diversifying economy continues to serve as a strong foundational pillar supporting Calgary’s dynamic housing market. Significant investments are pouring into a variety of burgeoning sectors, including alternative energy initiatives, advanced carbon capture technologies, the expansion of food manufacturing capabilities, and cutting-edge artificial intelligence research and development. These strategic investments are projected to sustain impressive economic growth across the province, even as broader concerns about potential U.S. tariffs introduce a degree of caution into the overall economic outlook. Alberta is notably forecasted to lead all Canadian provinces in economic growth throughout 2025, a testament to its diversified and resilient economic framework. Within this provincial context, Calgary, as the economic engine of Alberta, is expected to experience population growth at a rate even faster than the provincial average, further fueling housing demand.
Population growth, a critical driver of housing demand, remains a key factor, although migration levels are anticipated to normalize somewhat in 2025. While both interprovincial and international migration inflows are expected to ease from the record highs witnessed in previous years, they are still projected to remain substantial. This continued influx of new residents, drawn by Calgary’s economic opportunities, relative affordability, and high quality of life, will ensure that population gains continue to be a primary catalyst for activity in the housing market, underpinning sustained demand for all types of residential properties.
Despite the prevailing optimism, CREB carefully highlights several economic risks that warrant close monitoring. Potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods could have a ripple effect on various sectors of Alberta’s economy, potentially dampening consumer confidence and impacting investment decisions, which could, in turn, filter through to the housing market. Similarly, shifts in federal energy policies could introduce uncertainty for a province deeply rooted in the energy sector. Conversely, an absence of these anticipated tariffs presents a significant upside potential. A tariff-free scenario would undoubtedly strengthen Alberta’s economy even further, potentially leading to higher levels of migration and, consequently, more robust housing activity than currently forecasted, creating a more buoyant market environment.
Beyond external economic factors, easing lending rates offer another powerful upside for Calgary’s housing market. As the Bank of Canada potentially moves towards a more accommodative monetary policy, lower borrowing costs could significantly enhance affordability for prospective homebuyers. This would particularly benefit first-time buyers who have been sidelined by higher interest rates, allowing more individuals to enter the market and achieve homeownership. Reduced mortgage costs are expected to stimulate demand and support higher-than-expected sales volumes, especially within the highly sought-after detached and semi-detached housing markets. This confluence of strong economic fundamentals, sustained population growth, and potentially more favorable lending conditions positions Calgary’s housing market for a year of dynamic, albeit more balanced, activity in 2025.