The Greater Toronto Area’s (GTA) ultra-luxury real estate market witnessed a significant shift in 2025, as homes listed for $10 million or more failed to sell above their asking price. New data from HouseSigma reveals a striking trend: high-net-worth buyers successfully negotiated some of the most substantial discounts across the entire housing market, marking a decisive swing in leverage towards purchasers of opulent properties.
According to HouseSigma’s comprehensive analysis, the average luxury home buyer last year secured a price nearly 10 percent below the initial asking price. This figure stands in stark contrast to the broader GTA market, where the median discount hovered around 2.5 percent, making luxury buyers’ savings more than three times greater. In concrete financial terms, this translated into an impressive median savings of $1.145 million. This occurred on properties that carried an average list price of $14.3 million but ultimately sold for an average of $12.8 million, underscoring the considerable bargaining power wielded by discerning buyers in the high-end segment.
“The bigger the property, the harder the fall, and this phenomenon is greatly accelerated within the luxury market,” commented Sammy Kohn, a seasoned agent with HouseSigma. Kohn’s observation highlights a critical dynamic: while market corrections can impact all property segments, the upper echelons often experience more dramatic adjustments due to their unique liquidity profiles and the discretionary nature of such investments.
Widening Price Gaps Across the Greater Toronto Area’s Diverse Housing Landscape
HouseSigma’s in-depth research extended beyond the ultra-luxury segment, revealing a widespread recalibration across the entire GTA housing market in 2025. Nearly three-quarters of all residential properties sold below their final asking price, indicating a broad shift from the intense bidding wars that characterized previous years. Conversely, just under a quarter of homes managed to fetch prices above their initial listed value. This data paints a clear picture of a market moving away from intense competition and towards a more balanced, if not buyer-leaning, environment.
When dissecting the market by property type, condominiums exhibited the deepest median discounts, suggesting either an oversupply relative to demand or a greater willingness among condo sellers to adjust prices. Detached houses followed suit with significant price reductions, reflecting the softening across the broader residential sector. Attached homes, including townhouses and semi-detached properties, tended to sell closest to their list prices, potentially due to their relative affordability within the GTA context or a more stable demand base compared to more volatile segments.
The market’s softening was particularly pronounced in the GTA’s more affluent municipalities. Areas such as King Township, Caledon, and Oakville, renowned for their executive homes and upscale communities, recorded the widest discrepancies between asking and final sale prices. These regions, often home to larger, custom-built luxury properties, were more susceptible to the cooling market conditions. In contrast, more affordable markets, including the Eastern GTA municipalities of Oshawa and Clarington, experienced comparatively smaller discounts, illustrating a tiered market response where demand for entry-level and mid-range homes remained more robust.
Luxury Sellers Adjust to Post-Pandemic Realities
Sammy Kohn (contributed)
According to Sammy Kohn, accurately pricing luxury properties has always presented a unique challenge in the real estate world due to their bespoke nature and limited comparables. However, the current market dynamics are exacerbated by sellers still grappling with expectations set during the unprecedented real estate boom of the pandemic years.
“Luxury properties in Toronto are notoriously difficult to price accurately, even at the best of times. It’s by no means an exact science,” Kohn explained. He emphasized that many homeowners, particularly those in the high-end segment, are still trying to reconcile their valuation with a market that bears little resemblance to the feverish conditions of 2021. During that period, propelled by historically low interest rates, a desire for more space, and a surge in disposable income, homes across all price points were “flying off the shelves,” often selling for significantly over asking with multiple bids.
The dramatic shift is evident in sales volumes. Kohn noted that overall sales across Toronto last year were roughly half of their 2021 peaks. This significant slowdown has inevitably impacted the high-end segment, where transactions involve larger sums and are often more sensitive to economic sentiment and interest rate fluctuations. The disconnect between sellers’ perceived value, influenced by the recent past, and buyers’ current willingness to pay has created the wide price gaps observed today.
Buyers Regain Decisive Negotiating Power in the Luxury Segment
The extent of the price corrections in the luxury market is vividly illustrated by a notable case in Forest Hill, one of Toronto’s most prestigious neighbourhoods. A sprawling mansion, initially listed at an ambitious $19.99 million in August 2024, eventually sold in 2025 for a staggering $7.5 million. Even after its final asking price was significantly reduced to $10.29 million, the property still sold at a remarkable $2.79 million discount from that adjusted figure. This monumental drop represents the largest dollar-value discount recorded on any GTA residential sale last year, serving as a powerful emblem of the buyer’s market conditions in the ultra-luxury tier.
Sammy Kohn elaborated on the psychological aspect contributing to these market dynamics, particularly for owners of expansive, custom-built homes. “Most sellers have profound emotional attachments to their properties; they represent a bank of memories, significant life events, and years of effort,” he stated. “This emotional connection becomes even more pronounced with these 5,000- to 6,000-square-foot properties featuring eight bedrooms and eight ensuite bathrooms. Such deep personal investment can make it incredibly difficult for sellers to objectively assess current market value and adjust their expectations accordingly. You can truly lose sight of the objective financial worth.”
Despite sellers’ aspirations and emotional valuations, Kohn firmly believes in the immutable principle of the market: “Sellers can wish all they want as far as what they feel a place is worth, but ultimately, it is the buyers who make these decisions. Their willingness to pay dictates the final price.” This fundamental truth is especially potent in a buyer’s market where options are plentiful and financial scrutiny is heightened.
Looking ahead, Kohn anticipates that negotiating leverage will continue to reside firmly on the buyer’s side. With residential inventory continuing its upward climb into 2026 and persistent economic uncertainties—such as inflation, fluctuating interest rates, and broader geopolitical concerns—weighing heavily on demand, buyers are positioned to maintain their advantage. This environment provides what Kohn refers to as “breathing room” for buyers, allowing them to conduct thorough due diligence and engage in strategic negotiations without the pressure of an immediate bidding war.
For real estate professionals like Kohn, these shifting market conditions have made the job more intellectually rewarding. He notes that meticulous research, insightful market analysis, and skilled negotiation can once again profoundly impact successful transactions, a stark contrast to the fast-paced, often negotiation-light, market of recent years. “It’s not always the case of sellers winning with these insane prices anymore,” he concluded, highlighting a return to fundamental real estate principles where value and strategy are paramount.
Kohn brings a rich tapestry of experience to his role at HouseSigma, where he has been a valuable asset for three years. His real estate career spans 15 years, giving him extensive insight into market cycles and client needs. Beyond his professional life in real estate, Kohn is also a member of the platinum-selling rock band The Watchmen. Nearly 35 years after the release of their debut album, the band continues to sell out venues across Canada, a testament to his enduring talent and adaptability in diverse fields.